Weekend Leadership Reading: 5/24/19

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Weekends are time when things slow down a little. Your weekend shouldn’t be two more regular work days. That’s a sure road to burnout. Take time to refresh yourself. Take time for something different. Take time for some of that reading you can’t find time for during the week.

Here are choice articles on hot leadership topics culled from the business schools, the business press and major consulting firms. This week there are articles about recession. Can we predict when one will hit? How do we survive and thrive?

From Jeffrey Schulze: Is A Recession Coming? Or Will We Party Like It’s 1999?

“Is a recession coming? History can be a good guide. Examining the signals from the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a recession hit, can help investors evaluate the many similarities – and differences – between then and now.”

From Robert Shiller: The Trump Boom Is Making It Harder to See the Next Recession

“When big shifts like recessions are on the way, economists just aren’t very good at predicting them. The truth is that we really can’t foresee where the economy will be heading in a year or two, a limitation that is particularly troubling right now, in the midst of what may be called the Trump economic boom.”

From Tom Holland and Jeff Katzin: Smart Moves to Make Now Ahead of a Recession

“While predicting when a recession will hit is nearly impossible, it’s certainly not far-fetched that one could arrive relatively soon, given that the economic expansion is now into its second decade. For CFOs and other corporate leaders, however, the exact timing and duration of a recession matters less than their willingness and readiness to seize the moment now, when they have more options.”

From Richard Dobbs, Tomas Karakolev, and Rishi Raj: Preparing for the next downturn

“To understand how to make the most of a recessionary environment, we analyzed the performance before, during, and after the 2000–01 recession of some 1,300 US companies from a broad range of sectors[1] and identified which of these companies emerged from it having gained or maintained leadership status.[2] For these industry leaders, we analyzed which characteristics they exhibited before the recession that might help explain why they outperformed their peers.”

From Walter Frick: How to Survive a Recession and Thrive Afterward

“Recessions—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth—can be caused by economic shocks (such as a spike in oil prices), financial panics (like the one that preceded the Great Recession), rapid changes in economic expectations (the so-called ‘animal spirits’ described by John Maynard Keynes; this is what caused the dot-com bubble to burst), or some combination of the three. Most firms suffer during a recession, primarily because demand (and revenue) falls and uncertainty about the future increases. But research shows that there are ways to mitigate the damage.”

Book Suggestions

A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility by Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio

Recession-Proof: How to Survive and Thrive in an Economic Downturn by Jason Schenker

Irrational Exuberance: Revised and Expanded Third Edition by Robert Shiller

Every week I share some recommendations of business books that I think are worth a look. Follow this link to the most recent list.

Every Monday, I do a blog post about business reading and business books. Follow this link to my review of Loonshots.

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