It’s New Year’s time again and along with resolutions, goal setting, and bowl games, it’s time for experts to make forecasts. The bad news is that most of them will be wrong. The good news, at least for the forecasters, is that no one will ever check back to see how they did.
Nevertheless, you will see and hear many forecasts, predictions and prognostications in the coming days. I offer you a selection of quotes to help you make sense of them and find nuggets of value that will help you do better.
“The future is already here – it is just unevenly distributed.”
“The future always arrives too fast…and in the wrong order.”
“An extrapolation of the trends of the 1880s would show today’s cities buried under horse manure.”
“We were always going to be rich next year.”
“We only know two things about the future. It cannot be known. It will be different from what exists now and from what we now expect.”
And finally, my favorite, the only one you can count on. This one’s from Calvin Coolidge.
“Business will be either better or worse.”
The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz
WTF?: What’s the Future and Why It’s Up to Us by Tim O’Reilly